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Despite reserves hitting a record $785.7 billion, the rupee will not meaningfully strengthen and will likely stay within roughly a 94 to 97 per dollar range through year end.
Made
14 Sep 2026
By
Marco Law
Market
India
Outcome
Unresolved
The reserve surge stems largely from RBI swap driven inflows, not underlying strength, while sustained foreign portfolio outflows and elevated oil prices keep driving real depreciation pressure, meaning the buffer manages the pace of decline rather than reversing it.
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