BYD will lose market share to SAIC in China’s new-energy vehicle market by March 2027, with BYD’s retail share falling below 21.8%.

On 14 October, regulators instructed insurers to share buyer credit data and pool risks, while encouraging local governments to subsidise premiums. Suppliers can now insure what carmakers owe them, so they can refuse slow payers' IOUs or charge more. BYD is particularly exposed because its use of commercial notes surged 728% to CNY 10.4 billion in 2025. SAIC, by contrast, reduced its reliance on these notes and generated CNY 54.3 billion in operating cash in the first half of 2026 – up 158% – giving it more room to pay suppliers quickly. Suppliers are therefore likely to charge BYD more or demand faster payments, giving SAIC a cost advantage. The shift is already visible in sales: SAIC Passenger Vehicle’s new-energy vehicle sales rose 86.6% to 40,280 in September, while BYD’s fell 28.9%. SAIC’s MG, Shangjie and IM brands are set to gain domestic market share at BYD’s expense.