BilbyTry Bilby
All predictions

China’s CXMT will raise its share of global DRAM sales from 9.5% to at least 12% by the end of 2027, gaining roughly US$3.9 billion revenue at the expense of Samsung and SK hynix.

Made
14 Oct 2026
By
Owen Bae
Market
South Korea
Outcome
Unresolved

On 13 October, CXMT announced plans to launch a denser server-memory chip by the end of 2026, challenging South Korean dominance of the premium market. The design shrinks each memory cell by about a third on paper, so one wafer holds more memory and costs less per chip. Samsung and SK hynix are not expected to introduce similar technology until 2028 – CXMT already sells chips for 5–10% less than Korean rivals. Existing supply contracts will protect Korean manufacturers in the short term, but revenue and market-share losses will grow as those contracts expire and customers switch to the cheaper alternative. Yesterday’s KOSPI declines of 7.4% for Samsung and 10.1% for SK hynix may mark the end of their stock boom rather than a one-day blip.

Ask Bilbyabout it

Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed.

More from South Korea

27 predictions on South Korea so far, newest first.

All 27 from South KoreaMarked true or false when each resolves

See what we’reseeing next.

New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question.

Get the Asia Daily TakeTry Bilby

You are reading bilby.ai as an agent does: the same page, in markdown.