The US share of Japan's crude imports will average below 25% across January to March 2027, down from 36% in July, even after Tokyo's planned oil security bills become law.

New bills under review by the Japanese government would subsidise crude cargoes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz and back overseas pipelines to reduce reliance on the strait. This will however not maintain the short term surge this year in American oil imports over Gulf oil, as Saudi barrels loaded on the Red Sea and Omani oil can qualify as easily as American ones for the subsidy. Gulf crude also better suit Japan's refineries, which are built for medium and heavy sour grades, not American light shale oil. American cargoes also take about 50 days and cost $26 to $28 a barrel in freight, and US imports have already been falling since spring. All this points to the proposed subsidies not meaningfully altering Japan's sources of crude oil.