China’s government signals a coal buying push — Australian coal is a winner, while Japanese and South Korean power utilities are the likely losers.

On 23 October 2026 China’s National Development and Reform Commission published Order No. 50, which takes effect on 1 December 2026. It will require Chinese coal suppliers to honour domestic contracts, ban resales and penalise breaches through credit records and rail access. This is a likely signal that with winter coming, China’s planners are expecting a shortage, force Chinese buyers to import more. Australia is a likely winner; its coal shipments to China jumped 56% in September to a six-year high. Stronger Chinese demand will therefore leave Japanese and Korean utilities competing for the same Australian coal, pushing up prices and making supplies harder to secure — indeed South Korea’s seaborne coal imports are already up 16.9% this year.