USD/JPY will retest the 160 handle within four weeks unless the Bank of Japan commits to a September rate hike.

Made

4 Aug 2026

David Lee

Market

Japan

Outcome

True

TrueJudged 13 November 2026

USD/JPY broke above 160 on 28 August, reaching about 160.2, the first time since the joint US and Japan intervention on 31 July. It was still near 160.2 on 1 September, inside the four weeks. The Bank of Japan had not committed to a September hike by then. It raised its policy rate to 1.25% on 18 September, after the retest.

The historic joint US-Japan intervention, which pulled the pair from a 40-year low of 163.73 to below 158, is a containment exercise that cannot hold without genuine policy tightening.

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