All predictions
Tokyo will sign a new preliminary agreement or letter of intent on lethal-equipment export with the Philippines or Vietnam before February 2027.
Made
5 Aug 2026
By
David Lee
Market
Japan
Outcome
Unresolved
The new defence white paper's explicit endorsement of expanded arms exports and deeper regional coalition security ties gives Japanese officials fresh political cover to fast-track deals, while defence manufacturers gearing up for the domestic build-up need export volume to justify capacity expansion.
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