Japan’s government,read at source.
Bilby collects what Japan’s ministries and press publish, in Japanese, and turns it into answers you can act on: who decides, what changed and what could happen next.
650K
documents collected from Japan, 13 Nov 2026
36
predictions on Japan; 3 judged, all true, 14 Nov 2026
1,000+
more than 1,000 people and bodies in Japan on the map of who decides, 28 Oct 2026
Prediction #190 · 27 Oct 2026Unresolved
Japan’s government preferential debt for local banks will greatly aid its data centre boom.
METI proposes lending megabanks and regional banks long-term, low-rate state money through Japan Finance Corporation, the state covering part of any defaults, from fiscal 2027.
METIProposes the scheme and designs it
Gains: SoftBank, NTT DATA. Gain less: Microsoft, Oracle, AWS
Who decides?See it on the record
Who Bilby reads in Japan
The sources of the 187 Japan documents in the Asia Daily Take, 31 July to 12 November 2026: the national press, and the ministries themselves. Beyond them, 650K documents collected from Japan (13 Nov).
The press
読売新聞Yomiuri Shimbun
58東京新聞Tokyo Shimbun
40NHK
17毎日新聞Mainichi Shimbun
17日経Nikkei, Nikkei Business Healthcare
8産経新聞Sankei Shimbun and trade press
5Government
経済産業省METI
11首相官邸Prime Minister’s Office
10外務省Ministry of Foreign Affairs
9金融庁Financial Services Agency
4厚生労働省Health, Labour and Welfare
3財務省・総務省・国土交通省・北海道Finance, Internal Affairs, Land and Transport, Hokkaido
4What Japan’s investors watch
Five themes, each with a prediction from the public record, down to who gains and who loses.
Energy security
The US share of Japan's crude imports will average below 25% across January to March 2027, down from 36% in July, even after Tokyo's planned oil security bills become law.
Gulf crude suits Japan’s refineries better than US shale.
The yen and rates
The Bank of Japan's rate hike to 1.25% this month will be its last for at least four months, not the opening move of a rapid tightening cycle.
A hike-then-hold pattern: a pause is likelier than another rise before January 2027.
Chips and AI
Japanese electronic components manufacturer Ibiden’s estimated 70–80% share of the high-end AI server substrate market will fall below 70% by early 2028.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Unimicron win Nvidia orders before Ibiden’s Ono plant ramps up.
Critical minerals and China
Iluka Resources will sign a binding multi-year dysprosium and terbium supply agreement with a Japanese buyer within 12 months.
Japan diversifies after China halted dysprosium and terbium shipments.
Cars and trade
Japan’s passenger EVs are turning Chinese.
BYD gains as Toyota loses part of its subsidy advantage.
Japan abroad
Japanese firms also live under China’s, ASEAN’s and India’s governments. Bilby’s analysts read each country’s own sources in its own language, and every prediction cites its source.
Indonesia will add at least one of Japan or South Korea to its list of designated countries eligible for the relaxed export proceeds rule within the next 6 to 12 months.
True · #72VietnamBáo Chính phủJapanese semiconductor firms will gain an expansion advantage in Vietnam over rival foreign manufacturers through 2028.
#116ChinaMOFCOMBeijing's new anti-dumping duties on Japanese dichlorosilane, reaching 99.2%, will end up benefiting South Korean and European chip-material suppliers rather than Chinese producers.
#91IndiaThe HinduExpect India’s DRI to widen its customs probe to more South Korea and Japanese electronics brands within the next two to three quarters.
#125ThailandPrachachat TurakijChinese automakers, not Japanese incumbents, will keep gaining Thai EV market share even after Bangkok's new tiered excise tax rewards local component sourcing.
#99Documents collected, by market
ChinaSearchable
21.8MSouth Korea
7.7MMalaysia
2.0MIndonesia
1.3MThe Gulf
1.3MVietnam
1.0MIndia
290KThailand
220KCounted on 13 November 2026. China’s documents are searchable in Bilby; the other markets’ are collected.
Who decides in Tokyo
Type a name or an issue and see who decides, drawn as a diagram. The map holds more than 1,000 people and bodies in Japan, as of 28 October 2026.
1,000+
people and bodies in Japan on the map of who decides, as of 28 October 2026. Only entries with a known country are counted, so the true number is higher.
Lawmakers, ministers and officials
named in kanji as well as English
Diet committees
such as the House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs
Cabinet headquarters
such as the Cybersecurity Strategic Headquarters
Agencies and commissions
such as the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy and the National Public Safety Commission
Prefectures
such as Akita, Kyoto and Hiroshima
Companies
such as NTT DATA and Daiwa Securities Group
An analyst who reads Kasumigaseki
The Japan Political Financial Analyst reads through the Honebuto budget cycle, the Cabinet Legislation Bureau’s review, ministry silos, zoku lawmakers and Keidanren, and the pull between the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance. This is how it reads prediction #172.
Analyses Japanese political economy, Kantei coordination, Cabinet legislation, ministry silos, Zaikai and Keidanren influence, fiscal and monetary constraints, zoku politics, and economic-security policy.
Use in my question
Mainichi Shimbun, 19 October: to replace ¥4.3 trillion a year lost to the food tax cut, ministries propose ending only 3 of the 121 tax breaks under review.
Large manufacturers’ R&D credits stay protected by growth priorities; small firms’ 15% rate and wage-increase credit are under review.
The Bank of Japan against the Ministry of Finance and the Kantei: does normalisation threaten debt service?from the analyst’s own method
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield will continue to rise for the next 9 months.#172 · 20 Oct 2026 · Unresolved
Predictions on the record
What Bilby expects to happen next in Japan, and by when, each with its reasoning and its sources. Every one keeps the date it was made, and is marked when it resolves.
36
predictions on Japan
Since 3 Aug 2026 · counted 14 Nov
3 judged so far, all true.
TrueFalseUnresolved
#114 Aug 2026
USD/JPY will retest the 160 handle within four weeks unless the Bank of Japan commits to a September rate hike.
USD/JPY broke above 160 on 28 August, reaching about 160.2, the first time since the joint US and Japan intervention on 31 July.
#3914 Aug 2026
At least one major offshore wind developer will withdraw from or downsize a Japanese project within six months, despite Tokyo's subsidy hike to ¥700,000/kW.
Reuters reported on 5 November that Tokyo Gas, Japan's biggest city gas supplier, has withdrawn from an offshore wind project at Kashima Bay in Ibaraki prefecture because of rising costs.
#7231 Aug 2026
Indonesia will add at least one of Japan or South Korea to its list of designated countries eligible for the relaxed export proceeds rule within the next 6 to 12 months.
Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto announced on 6 November that South Korea, Japan and the European Union have been added to the countries whose shareholders qualify mining exporters for the relaxed export proceeds rule.
The Asia Daily Take
Bilby’s free newsletter on the governments of eleven Asian markets, in English, every weekday. Japan’s documents and predictions are in it.
Questions about Bilby in Japan
Which Japanese sources does Bilby read?
The national press and the ministries themselves. Among the 187 Japan documents in the Asia Daily Take: the Yomiuri Shimbun, Tokyo Shimbun, NHK and Mainichi Shimbun, METI, the Prime Minister’s Office, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Financial Services Agency. Beyond them, 650K documents collected from Japan (13 November 2026).
Can Bilby read China’s and Vietnam’s rules in their own languages?
China’s documents are searchable in Bilby in the original, and it answers in Japanese when you ask in Japanese. Vietnam’s and the other markets’ are collected: our analysts read them in their own languages for the Asia Daily Take and the predictions.
How are the predictions checked?
Each is published with its date and kept on the Prediction Record, where it is marked when it resolves. Of the predictions on Japan, the 3 judged so far were all true (14 November 2026).
What is on the map of who decides?
More than 1,000 people and bodies in Japan, as of 28 October 2026: lawmakers, ministers and officials, Diet committees, Cabinet headquarters, agencies, prefectures and companies. Only entries with a known country are counted, so the true number is higher.
Can I use Bilby in Japanese?
Yes, screens and answers alike.